Year of entry: 2018
Course unit details:
|Unit level||Level 3|
|Teaching period(s)||Semester 2|
|Available as a free choice unit?||Yes|
See course Blackboard pages.
|Unit title||Unit code||Requirement type||Description|
Or, if students have not taken ECON20110 in their second year, they can take ECON30370 (the same module) alongside this module.
To examine the theory and application of the basic classical forecasting tools used in management science and economics. To be aware of the open source software R as a resource for modelling.
At the end of this course you will be able to:
- Identify the presence of trend and seasonality in time series through the use of graphs and statistical hypothesis tests.
- Model time series using moving averages, exponential smoothing, and relevant ARIMA processes.
- Use these modeling techniques to obtain forecasts.
- Evaluate the performance of their own and other people’s forecasts.
- Introduction: measuring forecast accuracy.
- Graphs, transformations, tests for randomness: e.g. autocorrelation.
- Elementary modelling: simple moving averages, exponential smoothing, diagnostics.
- An introduction to ARMA models, stationarity.
- Trend: linear exponential smoothing, ARIMA models.
- Seasonality: seasonal exponential smoothing, seasonal ARIMAs.
Practical modelling: implementation via R, Box/Jenkins ARIMAs.
Teaching and learning methods
Lectures and exercise classes.
- Analytical skills
- Synthesis and analysis of data and information.
- Problem solving
- Numeracy. Time management.
- End of Unit Coursework: R assessment (10%).
- Final Exam: written answers (90%).
- One assessment using a question from the previous’ years exam.
- Online quizzes.
- Class exercises.
- Computer lab class exercise (formative for the R coursework).
- Office hours.
- Forecasting: Methods and Applications, (1998) by Makridakis, Wheelwright, Hyndman
- The online text by Hyndman and Athanasopouulos , Forecasting: Principle and Practice, which is more R focused (http://otexts.com/fpp/)
|Scheduled activity hours|
|Assessment written exam||1.5|
|Independent study hours|
|Simon Peters||Unit coordinator|